The observers, special services and journalists all over Russia discuss an opportunity of great war throughout Northern Caucasus which some commentators have already baptized as "the second caucasian war. The serious signs of impendent war also specify various western analytical sources, in particular experts of Jamesstone university of USA .
The Kremlin is getting ready for it. By the beginning of 2005 Moscow has concentrated 300 000 soldiers in Caucasus . Part of them, more than 100 000 (according to some data up to 200 000), are directly in the Chechen Republic .
Up to now the Russian forces have been dispersed over significant territory, including Rostov area which is populated by Russians , the Krasnodar and Stavropol territories. Currently, Moscow concentrates them in the Caucasian republics.
Yet on the 13th May the head of armies of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russian Federation Rogojkin declared, that additional units of his formations will be entered into Elista (Kalmikia), Cherkessk, Nalchik and Sochi. The militarization of all Northern Caucasus goes at full speed.
In the beginning of 2006 the brigades and battalions of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Northern Caucasus will be replaced with regiments and divisions. Instead of battalions with 600 trunks there will be regiments with 2000. Besides in Dagestan and Karachaevo - Circassia will be based 2 additional mountain brigades. Officially they will serve supposedly " for the protection of borders ". But actually the task of the mountain brigade in Karachaevo - Circassia consists in protection of the Black sea coast against attacks of mojaheds, and the brigade in Dagestan will defend the coast of Caspian sea from attacks of mojaheds from the Chechen Republic .
At the same time Russian occupational garrisons will be reinforced in the Chechen Republic , Kabardino-Balkariyas, Ingushetia and Northern Ossetia .
This year Putin's regime has already began openly to prepare the citizens for general war in Caucasus . And this is after 6 years since he has publicly promised to people to finish with Chechen mojaheds within 2-3 months.
Prospects of total war openly are openly discussed even in army circles. Among the officers of an occupational grouping in the Chechen Republic this theme is one of main issue. Practically nobody doubts, that general destabilization and bloody fights are not far off.
The local puppet militia under the order of the Kremlin are trying to anticipate mojaheds and carry out so-called "stripping". Especially actively operate the puppet militiamen in Dagestan where their losses grow day by day due to impacts of Dagestan mojaheds.
In Ingushetia for prevention of possible scale operations from the mojaheds side, armies and local puppet militia establish new blocks and block roads between a mountain part of republic and plain. In Kabardino-Balkariya mombers of OMON regularly comb the area of Elbrus. Recently in suburb of Nalchik they have implemented searches in all houses after there were killed some militiamen.
Practically all observers and commentators specify that mojaheds have kept their promise, expanded a zone of guerrilla operation all over Northern Caucasus . Along with Dagestan, the attacks of mojaheds take place in Kabardino-Balkariya, Karachaevo - Circassia , Ingushetia.
According to last military sessions of mojaheds command under the supervision of the president Sheikh Abdul-Halim Sadulaev, significant activization of mojaheds in Northern Caucasus is expected. Thus commentators reckon that the establishments of the control from the mojaheds side in important territories is almost inevitable.
Musa Strone,
Kavkaz Center
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