KavkazCenter - Would Iran join forces with Hezbollah to deter U.S. strike?

Would Iran join forces with Hezbollah to deter U.S. strike?

Continuous attempts by the United States over the past two years to stop Iran's nuclear activities have so far failed to yield satisfactory results. Fearing being referred to the United Nations Security Council which may lead to diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions, or possible military attack, Iran decided in October 2003 to make temporary tactical concessions under mounting international pressure to freeze all activities related to uranium enrichment and submit to increased inspections of its nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Iran also seemed to be influenced by U.S. war on Afghanistan which ousted the Taliban regime and Iraq war which toppled the former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

But Tehran has made enough tactical concessions to end the international standoff over its nuclear program and engage in diplomatic talks, but with recent series of threats issued by U.S. and Israel, Iran would consider harsh retaliation to protect its nuclear sites and right to peaceful pursuit of nuclear technology.

Citing intelligence officials who spoke on condition of anonymity, an editorial posted Saturday on The Washington Post suggested that Iran could turn to Lebanon's Hezbollah movement to use its international support network to aid in launching retaliatory attacks.

Western intelligence officials, interviewed by The Associated Press, stated that there are signs that Hezbollah's fundraisers and recruiters could provide Tehran with the needed logistical help, including forging travel documents or off-the-shelf technology - global positioning equipment and night goggles, to launch attacks in case the U.S. or Israel decided to knock down Iran's nuclear facilities.

After months of a heated war of words between the U.S., which claims that Iran is using its nuclear program as a guise for some hidden developments to build a nuclear bomb, and the Islamic Republic which insists that its nuclear program is solely used for civilian purposes, Washington finally offered returning to the negotiations table to persuade Iran halt its nuclear activities.

Iran is currently awaiting a new international proposal to end the crisis over its nuclear ambitions, yet insists on refusing to suspend uranium enrichment work.

The UN five permanent members plus Germany, who agreed to the package, say it is conditional on Tehran first halting enrichment.

"Negotiations must be without preconditions," Mottaki said of the demand. "No condition for negotiations is acceptable, especially the condition that has been set."

U.S. intelligence agencies are currently weighing options Iran would consider in case what Washington calls "diplomatic effort" failed to persuade it suspend its nuclear program, failed.

Iran might use oil as a weapon, or attack U.S. military bases in Iraq and elsewhere, with the help of Hezbollah, believed to be receiving great support from Iran.

But nothing has confirmed that the Iranian-backed Hezbollah has plans to strike U.S. targets. Yet the possibility has counterterrorism agencies keeping a watchful eye as ongoing dispute with Iran gets worse.

A senior U.S. official suggested that if the pressure mounted on the Islamic Republic and considered U.S.-led military action as inevitable, Iran might calculate that "terrorism could break international unity, increase pressure on the U.S. or shift American public opinion".

But U.S. political experts haven't reached a unified judgment about what might lead Iran to carry out such attacks.

Shortly after September 11 attacks that shook the U.S. in 2001, former chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee stated that Hezbollah is "believed to have the largest embedded terrorist network inside the U.S."

"I have no reason to believe that there has been a dismantlement of that capability," said former Sen. Bob Graham, D-Fla.

With recent escalation between Iran and the U.S., Tehran would ask for Hezbollah's help to strike Western interests in Latin America and elsewhere, suggests Steven Monblatt, head of the Organization of American States' Inter-American Committee Against Terrorism.

On the other hand, Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the UN nuclear watchdog agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency, stated last week, that Iran does not pose any threat to the world, urging world powers to act cautiously to avoid repeating mistakes made with Iraq and North Korea.

"Our assessment is that there is no immediate threat," the winner of the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize said during a forum organised by the Monterey Institute of International Studies.

"We still have lots of time to investigate," he said. "You look around in the Middle East right now and it's a total mess.

"You cannot add oil to that fire."

ElBaradei said the world should not jump the gun with wrong or weak intelligence as the U.S. did in 2003 when it decided to bomb Iraq, claiming Saddam possessed Weapons of Mass Destruction.

The world should not push Iran into retaliation as international sanctions did in North Korea, the IAEA chief warned.

Source: AlJazeera