KavkazCenter - Lebanon: Bloodshed on the Horizon?

Lebanon: Bloodshed on the Horizon?

Fears grew this week that protests that broke out in Lebanon, calling for the resignation of the West-backed government could turn into sectarian violence, specially after the killing of a Shia Muslim protester in a Sunni district of Beirut and whose funeral was held yesterday.

Supporters of the Shia group Hezbollah, which has the support of Syria and Iran, together with its allies in the opposition, took to streets holding an indefinite sit-in to force the resignation of the government led by Sunni Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.

"Some of the poorest and most marginalized people in the country, Shia Muslims, have abandoned their homes in suburban slums to camp out on the nation's priciest bit of real estate. Though they often have trudged through Lebanese history as war refugees, now they have managed to displace Lebanon's wealthiest shop owners. They also have surrounded Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, barricaded in his office."

Los Angeles Times ran an article on December 5 titled "Lebanon Builds Up Security Forces" in which it stated that "The Lebanese government has nearly doubled the size of its security forces in recent months by adding about 11,000 mostly Sunnis and Christian troops, and has armed them with weapons and vehicles donated by the UAE, a Sunni state."

Also Ha'aretz wrote that the "army's conclusion is that a war in the near future is a reasonable possibility....the IDF's operative assumption is that during the coming summer months, a war will break out against Hezbollah and perhaps against Syria as well."

Many politicians and observers warned that the current political turmoil in Lebanon could turn into sectarian strife in the country that had already suffered two civil wars in the last century.

Analysts also explained that the anti-government protests that were organised across the country by the Shia opposition signal the shifting of power away from Washington and Tel Aviv to a new Shia-dominated Middle East, warning the Sunni Prime Minister Fouad Siniora that time is running out and he could be the next domino on the list which could fall in a matter of weeks, as stated an editorial on Uruknet.info.

It's been quite sometime since the opposition, including some Christians, began demanding effective veto power in the government, whose majority comprises anti-Syrian politicians from Christian, Sunni and Druze parties. But no change was ever made. Politicians argue that the opposition only wants to weaken the government and derail a UN tribunal that would try suspects in the 2005 murder of the former Prime Minister Rafiq Al Hariri.

But evidence supporting such explanation was never presented.

Sheikh Nasrallah is seeking ways to democratize Lebanon by demanding greater representation for the country's Shia majority. All means he sought have so far been peaceful, even though, recent protests can be viewed as an impressive "show of force" that could be a sign of things to come.

If things got worse, Hezbollah will seek all options on table to defend its people and its interests.

The Sunni PM knows quite well that Hezbollah leader is capable of bringing down the government or plunge the country into civil war. "So, it's all a matter of who blinks first," Uruknet editorial stated.

Ironically enough, tactics adopted by Hezbollah are quite similar to those used during the so-called Cedar Revolution which brought Siniora in office and forced Syria to withdraw its troops out of Lebanon.

Now, the situation has reversed itself.

The "Class struggle" in Lebanon, which played a key role in the current confrontation, has been to a great extent ignored by the mainstream media which has been busy emphasizing the religious differences to promote the theory of a "clash of civilizations".

The "clash of civilizations" claim benefits those who favor continuation of war and turmoil in the Middle East until Arab countries are broken up into weak statelets.

The fact of the matter is that Lebanon's Shias are mostly poor and underrepresented, and that's why they seek better representation in the parliament in a way that protects their rights and interests.

But this doesn't mean that they seek turning Lebanon into an Islamic theocracy. Hezbollah leader, who's fiercely nationalistic, has made it clear that he's against an Iranian-type "Mullahocracy". Nasrallah's main objective is ending the power of U.S.-Israeli agents, like Siniora, who refused to deploy the Lebanese army in the southern sections of the country to confront the Israeli forces and drive them out of Lebanon.

In the eyes of the families of the 1300 civilians who were killed by the Israeli army, Siniora is definitely an Israeli agent, and a U.S. ally.

About Washington's goals in Lebanon, Michel Chossudovsky, said:

"Washington's objective is to transform Lebanon into a U.S. protectorate. The Lebanese people are demanding the resignation of a government which is acting on behalf of the U.S. and Israeli invaders of their country. They are demanding the formation of a national unity government which will defend the Lebanese homeland against U.S.-Israeli aggression."

"The Beirut government is taking orders directly from the U.S. embassy. The Siniora government has allowed the deployment of NATO forces on Lebanese territory under the pretext of UN-sponsored peace-keeping operation. NATO warships under German command are stationed off the country's eastern Mediterranean coastline. NATO has a military cooperation agreement with Israel."

The U.S. and Israel are trying all means to instigate turmoil and destabilize Lebanon, part of bigger plan that seeks hegemony in the entire Middle East region, a plan that was definitely served by the recent killing of the Lebanese industry Minister Pierre Gemayel, which gave a boost to the U.S.-Israeli influence and increased the likelihood of a confrontation between Hezbollah and the government forces, which allows Israel stay uninvolved via its Lebanese proxies.

That's exactly what the U.S. and Israel seek.

Mark Mackinnon of the Globe and Mail echoes the argument of LA Times.

Mackinnon says, "Since the Syrian army's departure from Lebanon in early 2005, the U.S. and France have been providing money and training to the Internal Security Forces (ISF). With the political situation souring further in recent weeks, the UAE stepped in to provide the unit with an emergency "gift" of thousands of rifles and dozens of police vehicles." ("West helps Lebanon build Militia to fight Hezbollah"; Globe and Mail)

But Israel remains skeptic that the Lebanese army, armed by Western powers, can combat Hezbollah's fighters.

According to Ha'aretz:

"The mounting crisis threatening the Siniora government in Lebanon, and the specter of a Hezbollah takeover, have spurred senior Israeli government officials in Jerusalem to raise several proposals in recent days aimed at strengthening Siniora....(They are) increasingly concerned that Siniora's government will fall, resulting in a Hezbollah takeover that would turn the country into what an Israeli government official source termed 'the first Arab state to become an Iranian protectorate'".

Israel is preparing for a showdown; knowing that Washington cannot intervene or commit any American troops if war breaks out, given the current quagmire it's stuck in Iraq.

Source: AJ and agencies