With militias formed, looting reported and people killed in skirmishes in the capital Mogadishu, many experts fear the Horn of Africa country is descending into an Iraqi-style instability.
"The most difficult for the Ethiopians will not be to take over (the capital) but to hold on," Sally Healy, an associate fellow at the London-based Chatham House Institute on International Relations, told Agency France Press (AFP).
In a week, thousands of Ethiopian troops equipped with tanks, heavy artillery and MiG fighters have routed the Supreme Islamic Courts of Somalia (SICS) forces and entered the war-scared capital.
Gunfire and outbreaks of looting marked the end of months of relative stability that began when the SICS chased US-backed warlords from the city in June.
For years, residents suffered clan-based fighting and extortion at a myriad of checkpoints manned by rifle-toting warlord militiamen.
Many in the capital of 2 million people feared a return to widespread violence as militia loyal to the warlords resurfaced on the streets in their "technicals" -- pick-up trucks bristling with heavy weaponry.
At least five people were killed when local militia opened fire during a looting spree at a weapons store north of the capital, witnesses said.
The SICS, which until last week was in control of the capital and much of southern Somalia, quit Mogadishu earlier in the day to "avert heavy bombing because Ethiopian forces are practicing genocide against the Somali people."
It said troops were staging a "tactical retreat" in the face of Ethiopian air strikes and would engage in long-term guerilla war with the invading troops.
Analysts insist the question now is how Ethiopia can secure its victory in a country that has known only chaos since 1991 and against an enemy likely to turn to guerrilla warfare.
"Urban guerrilla warfare and attacks in city centers and outside the country are probable," said Roland Marchal, an analyst at the Center for International Studies and Research in Paris.
He described the situation as a sort of "African Iraq or Afghanistan".
If Ethiopia maintains a military occupation, "the people, sooner or later, will end up opposing what they will see as invaders," said Marchal.
But if Ethiopian troops leave, he added, "the Islamic Courts will spring back up."
Healy, the British expert, believes that the Iraq experience could apply to this war.
She said the SICS might initially be beaten in Mogadishu, they will likely become "radicalized" and unwilling to accept a negotiated peace.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a Western military expert agreed.
He told AFP what the Ethiopians most risk "is that what happened to the Americans in Iraq happens to them -- the loss of their soldiers and then them finally being forced to retreat."
The SICS has already called on Muslims worldwide to flock to the African country to join "jihad" against the Ethiopians.
The Islamic state of Iraq has urged Muslims to support the SICS against Ethiopia.
"Your brothers in Somalia are waging major battles against the crusader enemies who are in cahoots with the apostates of the transitional Somali government backed by the countries of the crusader alliance, chiefly the US administration," said a statement posted on the Internet, whose authenticity could not be confirmed.
Ethiopia, a predominantly Christian country, launched its offensive with the support of the US.
Many experts fear tensions could spread to neighboring countries, especially Eritrea, reportedly backs the SICS.
"It is very, very dangerous. The conditions are ripening for a potential regional conflict," said Kurt Shillinger, a specialist on terrorism and Islam at the South African Institute of International Affairs.
He added that "long standing ethnic and regional problems that simply can't go away in the short term" could fuel a widening conflict.
UN special envoy for Somalia, Francois Lonseny Fall, has told the UN Security Council he was pessimistic if prolonged guerrilla fighting precluded a brokered truce.
"[Somalia] will face a period of deepening conflict and heightened instability, which would be disastrous for the long-suffering people of Somalia, and could have serious consequences for the entire region."
Source: IslamOnline.net & News Agencies
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