KavkazCenter - Syria-Israel bombing incident: The beginning of a new conflict?

Syria-Israel bombing incident: The beginning of a new conflict?

Israel's "unacceptable maneuvers" showed its bad faith toward peace efforts, especially at a time when the U.S. is preparing to host a conference involving Israel and its neighbors.

Last week, Syria announced that Israeli warplanes violated its airspace and dropped "munitions" onto deserted areas after being shot at by Syrian air defenses, a move that raised speculation over a possible escalation into war between the two countries. Many Arab analysts say Israel's violation of Syria's airspace only serves to heighten tensions in the region. The Israeli over-flights came as a surprise for many Syrians; especially because it's reported to have happened in the country's north, close to the Turkish border, and not in the south, where Syria and Israel share a border. Over the weekend, Turkey requested an explanation from Israel about fuel tanks found near the Turkish border with Syria. Turkish TV also showed pictures of where the Israeli fuel tanks were found. Syria and Israel remain technically in a state of war, and peace talks collapsed in 2000 over the fate of the Golan Heights, the strategic plateau seized by Israel during the 1967 Middle East War. Syria often says that it wants peace with Israel through negotiations, but insists that the Jewish state must abandon the Golan Heights in return for any peace deal. On the other hand, Israel uses Syria's moral support for Lebanese and Palestinian resistance groups as a pretext for not holding any peace talks with Damascus. Despite the continued tensions, both countries have generally kept the border area quiet. So why did Israel decide to fuel tensions now? According to an article on the Associated Press, Israel has a number of reasons to fly over northern Syria: to gather information about long-range missiles pointed at Israel, to test Syrian air defense, or to try out a possible air route to Iran. Whatever Israel's reasons are, the violation of Syrian airspace in a summer where the two countries seem to have oscillated from possible war to possible peace talks left Syrian officials jittery. On Sunday, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem told reporters: "We are prepared to defend ourselves against any attack that Israel may plan, but our basic priority is a comprehensive peace."

Syria's Information Minister Mohsen Bilal also said that Israeli warplanes "intervened in our airspace... which they should not do -- we are a sovereign country and they should not come into airspace." Syria is "giving serious consideration to its response... to this aggression", he warned. And on Wednesday, the Syrian government formally complained to the United Nations about the Israeli over-flights. Describing the incident as a flagrant violation of Syrian airspace, Syrian ambassador, Bashar Jaafari, said: "Israel is seeking military escalation. We are exerting efforts so that we don't fall into this trap... We are dealing with the matter with utmost keenness, precision and responsibility." Meanwhile, the Arab League said such "unacceptable maneuvers" showed Israeli bad faith toward peace talks in the region, especially at a time when the U.S. is preparing to host a conference involving Israel and its neighbors, with a view to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Many Arab commentators saw the Israeli over-flights as a follow-on from Israel's war in Lebanon last summer. "This is the beginning of a Syrian-Israeli conflict," said Sateh Noureddine, columnist with Lebanese newspaper as-Safir. In Israel, the government didn't comment on the incident. However, some officials admitted that Israel regularly carries out such missions over Syria. Israeli minister Raleb Majadele said that the Israel air force enters Syria's airspace on a daily basis, adding that Syria overreacted this time. Yesterday, an unnamed U.S. official also confirmed to AFP news agency that Israeli fighters had carried out an attack on an unspecified target in Syria, adding that the attack was a warning to Syria not to re-arm Hezbollah. "The Israelis are trying to tell the Syrians: 'Don't support a resurgence of Hezbollah in Lebanon,'" he said. If Israel violates Syria's airspace regularly, then why did Thursday's operation end differently?

Was Syria's military response different from before, or was the difference only that it protested publicly? Did it show Syria's defenses have improved with Russian hardware bought since Israel's war in Lebanon? Were the Israeli pilots just careless? Or did they deliberately provoke a Syrian response? For Lebanese commentator Sateh Noureddine: "It was no mistake ... that the Israelis reached that area. It was ... a test for Syria's military, political and psychological defenses.... As for Syria's announcement, that is a warning that any other step like that can be considered as the start of a war." According to Reuters, Israeli analysts also condemned the violation. A former Israeli diplomat who has worked for a resumption of peace talks with Damascus said he was worried by a "very aggressive" Israeli message after a summer in which speculation on both sides of a surprise attack by the other has mingled with public offers of renewed negotiations. Reuven Pedhatzur, an analyst and former Israeli pilot, wrote in Haaretz that, despite high tensions with Damascus, whoever ordered the mission failed to grasp its consequences and risked provoking a "pre-emptive strike." Referring to Syria's role in the 1967 war, Pedhatzursaid: "Like 40 years ago, the two sides could lose control of the situation and war could break out through a misunderstanding of the other side's intentions." Eyal Zisser, another Israeli analyst, praised Syria in an article published on the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper. "Any misunderstanding could lead to conflagration. However, the Syrian announcement was surprising in its moderation." He added that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had shown such "moderation" before, in that warnings of retaliation had not come to actual conflict. Retired senior Israeli diplomat Alon Liel, who has worked with Syrian officials to promote negotiations, said Prime Minister Ehud Olmert risked escalating the situation at a time when both sides had a chance to talk peace: "I see here an Israeli message that is very aggressive," Liel said. "And I'm worried." Source: AJP Kavkaz Center