Surgical operation on PKK

Opposition is beating the war drums; Turkish public is demanding an operation; Bush is offering an upgraded three-way ‘coordinators' scheme; winter is setting in... Difficult times to make difficult decisions for Erdogan.

It must be rather uncomfortable for Recep Tayyip Erdogan being the prime minister of the country nowadays.

Even though he has been ruling it out, the prime minister must have been alarmed more than anyone else in the country with the "isolated" attacks here and there in many western cities of the country on businesses owned by people with ethnic Kurdish background. There is obviously an escalation in Turkish nationalism, and a rise in ethnic Kurdish nationalism. If not for anything else, the government is compelled to score some striking success in its struggle against separatist terrorism and put a full stop to this "alienation" psychology in society that may produce very grave results.

What may appear today as "isolated" attacks, may become tomorrow's nightmare.

No green light from Bush

A discussion started in the country after the White House meeting of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan with President George W. Bush whether Turkey was given a "green" or "yellow" light from the U.S. regarding a possible cross-border operation on PKK hideouts in northern Iraq.

The meeting ended with a decision to establish some sort of an enhanced "coordinators" scheme which - unlike the previous 14-month exercise conducted by retired Turkish and American generals and the Iraq leg could not become operational at all - will be undertaken by generals Ergin Saygun and James E. Cartwright, the number twos of the Turkish and the American military, and General David Patroeus, the commander of U.S. troops in Iraq. There is no mention of cooperation with the Iraqi military. Perhaps the previous exercise has convinced the U.S. about the inability of Iraqis to engage in any sort of such "meaningful" exercise. Naturally, the Turkish opposition wasted no time in condemning the development as yet another stalling tactic of the U.S. administration to prevent Turkey from engaging in a military operation that could destabilize northern Iraq.

What would be the task of these new upgraded coordinators? Rather than the obscure "coordination of anti-terrorist cooperation" definition of the previous exercise, this time three duties were outlined for the coordinators by Bush himself: 1- To disperse camps of the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) terrorists in northern Iraq; 2- To capture leading members of the gang; and 3- To cut logistic support for the gang.

Besides, Bush declared that Turkey will be offered intelligence sharing about the PKK's activities, while he branded as "hypothetical" a question on any possible Turkish military operation on PKK hideouts in northern Iraq...

The summary, therefore, is slightly different than what Erdogan told a National Press Club news conference. What's in store in light of the Oval Office discussions is not a comprehensive push by Turkey on the PKK in northern Iraq, but firstly to prevent the terrorists crossing into Turkey and carrying out some terrorist actions here and secondly through intelligence provided by the U.S. to conduct a surgical operation on PKK camps in northern Iraq. Whatever else might be said or written will not be more than rhetoric aimed at silencing the enraged Turkish public opinion demanding an effective punitive action from their government against the terrorists.

Despite the beating of war drums, and in spite of the declarations by the government that Turkey's determination to stage an operation on the PKK remains as strong as ever, the message from Washington is not that favorable for an operation, at least for the kind of operation the Turkish public is demanding... That is, the best we can see from what Bush told Erdogan is that the premier was given a yellow light... nothing further...

Weather factor

On the other hand, in less than a week or so the mountains in Turkey's eastern and southeastern border regions - as well as the northern Iraqi mountains where the separatist PKK terrorists are enjoying safe haven - will all be covered with a white blanket. Winter is setting in.

The Turkish military can, of course, operate in winter conditions, but it is obvious that the worse the weather conditions become, that much more difficult it will be to stage an operation and achieve the targeted results of an operation. That is, weather conditions are pressuring the government not to delay an operation any further particularly if it is considering an incursion into northern Iraq with the land forces...

Thus, it appears the government will have to engage in public diplomacy and warm Turks up to the idea of a surgical operation... 

Source: Turkish Daily News

Kavkaz Center