KavkazCenter - Russia flexes muscles in Caucasus: End of post-Soviet era?

Russia flexes muscles in Caucasus: End of post-Soviet era?

Did Georgia's young and ambitious President Mikhail Saakashvili miscalculate everything when he ordered an offensive in his country's breakaway region of South Ossetia?

Given the scale of the defeat his army suffered at the hands of the Russian forces responding to the Georgian offensive, this appears to be a reasonable conclusion. But whether his miscalculation is to blame for the latest tragedy in the troubled Caucasus or not, it is a clear fact that Russia's backlash was massive and ominous in threatening to shift the power balances prevailing in the Caucasus since the end of the Cold War.

And as Moscow teaches Georgia the lesson that there is no way to return to the status quo before the South Ossetia offensive, there is little the West can do to stop Russia from overrunning Tbilisi's ambitions to assert control over its breakaway regions despite statements from the US administration that it supports Georgia's "territorial integrity." The Russian military victory over tiny Georgia is also a painful message to both Tbilisi and its Western allies that Georgian desires to join NATO, a milestone in Georgia's eventual integration with the US-led West, are unlikely to become a reality anytime soon.

"My heart aches at this repetitious history of Russian dominance and aggression, whether Czarist, Bolshevik or Oligarchic," said Thomas Goltz, a US expert on the Caucasus. "We can ask the question: Did Misha [Saakashvili] go too far or get pulled into a trap? But it really makes no difference right now. Russia has just declared the 'post-Soviet era' over and a new age has begun."

South Ossetia is one of the breakaway regions in Georgia which declared independence in the early 1990s and ran its own affairs without any international recognition. It has been one of the "frozen conflicts" of the Caucasus in the post-Cold War era and thus its turning into a full-scale conflict like this is no surprise to observers. But it is very important to note that this is the first time in the post-Cold War era that Russia has resorted to military action on such a scale to defend its interests in a region it sees as its backyard.

"One of the most important features of the post-Cold War era is the emergence of 'geopolitical pluralism,'" said Özdem Sanberk, a former undersecretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, referring to the emergence of new states in what used to be the Soviet Union territory during the Cold War years. But a combination of what Russia sees as a hostile encirclement by the rival West -- through US moves to build an anti-missile shield system in eastern Europe and Western support for Kosovo's independence from Russian ally Serbia -- and growing Russian power thanks partly to rising oil prices, now prompts Russia to take steps to destroy this "geopolitical pluralism" in the Caucasus. "That means a return to the Cold War era," Sanberk said.

A New York Times analysis said yesterday that the US administration officials acknowledge that "Moscow is in the driver's seat," given the fact that Russia's emerging aggressiveness is now also timed with America's preoccupation with Iraq and Afghanistan and a looming confrontation with Iran. The newspaper quoted George Friedman, the chief executive of Stratfor, a geopolitical analysis and intelligence company, as saying: "We've placed ourselves in a position that globally we don't have the wherewithal to do anything. One would think under those circumstances, we'd shut up."

Saakashvili won the last elections on promises of NATO membership, something which Georgia hopes will give it Western protection against former ruler Russia, and control over the breakaway regions. But NATO's Bucharest summit earlier this year disappointed the Georgian administration, saying it still has problems in ensuring its territorial integrity.

Russia, on the other hand, sees Georgia's NATO membership as part of the hostile encirclement by the West. After Russian diplomacy failed to stop Kosovo's independence earlier this year, Russian leaders warned this would be a precedent for breakaway regions in the Caucasus, including South Ossetia.

Georgia is the most loyal US ally in the Caucasus and is of key importance in the transfer of natural gas and oil from Caspian fields to the West via a non-Russian route. But now, having paid a high price for its high-stake offensive in South Ossetia, Georgia, and others who counted so far on the West to counterbalance Russia, are being forced to reconsider their trust in the US and NATO. The Russian victory in South Ossetia may well force a change of power in Georgia, with Saakashvili eventually being replaced by a less pro-Western leader in a blow to US interests in the region.

Russian experts, on the other hand, argue that the Russian position is promising and peaceful. Moscow-based political analyst Dmitry Peskov argues that in fact Russia was not preparing for this conflict. "With our president on vacation and our prime minister at the Olympics, Russian officials were not ready for such a fast-paced and dramatic story," he said. Speaking to Today's Zaman yesterday, Peskov said that following three days of Georgia's offensive a humanitarian crisis had erupted and a number of Russian soldiers had died in Ossetia. The Russian society is considering the question of when and where it will be ready to stop the military action. "With Georgian troops outside Ossetia and with peacekeepers, working under a UN mandate, Russia will stop immediately," he said.

Turkey, which is cooperating with Georgia in all key trans-Caucasus transportation and energy transfer projects and is helping Tbilisi modernize its army, has also been caught in a difficult situation. Despite its strong support for Georgia's integration with Western institutions and the reliance on Tbilisi to reach the region due to problems with neighboring Armenia, siding with Georgia in its conflict with Russia is not a smart policy move. Trade with Russia has grown tremendously over the past years and Russia is Turkey's largest natural gas supplier, providing about 70 percent of its annual gas needs.

Source: Zaman