Crimea – the second Ossetia?

Correctly or not the Russian management has decided, having "force Georgia to the world", any more has no value. Whether there is South Ossetia and Abkhazia the separate states, whether will enter into structure of the Russian Federation, or remain with the uncertain status, also it is unimportant. The fact is the fact - the military conflict has led to loss of a part of the territory by Georgia. Also it is necessary to reflect, who can become the following victim of the similar scenario. Unlike a number of the European countries which won territories behind the seas (that has led to their further loss), Russia extended at the expense of absorption of the next territories. Such "internal colonization" not only has allowed mother country to supervise them, but also subsequently has provided preservation of considerable Russian influence after a parade of sovereignties - both in 1917-1918, and in 1990-1991. And claims on this influence only amplify recently. Including Ukraine.

Some of the Russian politicians repeatedly declared necessity of revision of the status of the Crimean peninsula. Considering, that in the Kremlin similar demarches are invariably perceived with favourable silence, it is necessary to expect, that on this line pressure upon Kiev will amplify only. It is not necessary to forget, that Crimea till 1954 was in structure of RSFSR, and for today remains for Russia the important strategic base. It concerns as military sphere - the base in Sevastopol provides the control of Black sea, and political - thanks to a manipulation with moods of the population of Crimea.

Russia renders essential moral and material support of activity of the Prorussian public and semimilitary organisations (for example, cossacks). Ostensibly at the initiative of the specified public organisations in Crimea the question of carrying out of a referendum on revision of the status of Crimea as making Ukraine is regularly brought up.

Throughout last two years reception process by the Ukrainian citizens of the Russian passports considerably became more active. It is necessary to remind, that the pretext of protection of own citizens living in Ossetia (they received the Russian citizenship in the same way, as well as inhabitants of Crimea) became the justification for war against Georgia.

Until recently hardly probable not a unique part of the population of Crimea, not captured by the Russian attention, were Crimean Tatars. However and this omission of the Kremlin is gradually corrected. And the rate becomes first of all on youth. Russia under own initiative has started to hold annual forums of the Tatar youth in Kazan which pass under the aegis of formation of national consciousness and preservation of cultural traditions of the people.

Under this plausible excuse passes systematic ideological and political processing of the Crimean-Tatar youth for the purpose of rearrangement further national consciousness in the Prorussian direction.

This work has already started to bear fruit. In the middle of September representatives of the Crimean-Tatar political organisation «Mele Firka» ("People's party") have addressed to the president and the prime minister of Russia, and also to the president of Tatarstan with the request to protect them from "the Ukrainian nationalist regime".

"Mele Firka" throughout September of this year, took part in quality of the claimant in a number of proceedings on business about genocide of the radical and small people in Ukraine. This organisation accuses the Ukrainian and Crimean authorities of genocide of the Crimean Tatars, and also oppressions of representatives of other radical and small people of the Crimean peninsula.

Reaction to the reference has followed immediately. The vice-president of committee of the State Duma of the Russian Federation on affairs of compatriots Konstantin Zatulin, the known friend to the Ukrainian statehood, has promised, that Russia will understand with the specified problem. He has paid attention that from the end of reorganisation and till now the Crimean Tatars "have been engaged by the authorities of Ukraine" which considered them as convenient "leverage" of intimidation of the Russian-speaking majority on peninsula. However, Zatulin's overall objective was Crimean-Tatar Majlis, which deputy has exposed hardly probable not a puppet of the Ukrainian authorities. This organisation really is the partner of Kiev, and Moscow tries to create for a long time the alternative centre of influence on the Crimean Tatars. So "Mele Firka", most likely, is the provocative project which purpose is not only discredit of Kiev, but also split among Tatars.

Certainly, their relations with the Ukrainian power far are not cloudless. To recollect at least the long train of self-captures provoked by enough that Kiev and has not managed to offer intelligible model of distribution of the land. However Tatars and Ukraine as more than once happened, have appeared again in one boat. Split will be only on a hand to the further strengthening of positions of Russia, whose relation to national minorities well-known. And who knows, whether it will intend to protect again the citizens in another's territory.

Force of any people in its unity. Only joint efforts and close cooperation with operating Ukrainian power Tatars can achieve the decision of present problems. Eventually, Ukraine itself initiated returning to territory of Crimea before the deported Tatars.

Otherwise the situation in Crimea will be modelled under the scheme already tested on Southern Caucasus. Therefore the probability of similar results as Moscow continues work in this direction is high enough also.