Threat to Ukraine from Russia

Since December, 2008 all world watches the alternate twist of withstanding between Ukraine and Russia. Has already set the teeth on edge the cause of this withstanding, namely transit of the Russian gas through terrain of Ukraine.

So fact events what to present an actual status it would be necessary to glance on several MTH ago:

1) Russia was impudently refused by Summer of 2008 from signing of new agreements, having stated publicly ABT their prolongation: at first it is the agreement for deliveries of gas and for gas transit to Europe, secondly it is the agreement for the status of the Black Sea fleet which one parts actually occupied terrain of Ukraine.

2) In August Russia has conducted small blitzkrieg against independent Georgia actually having torn away the part of its terrain occupied earlier on a kind of peace-making process.

3) Russia finances shares of separatists in Crimea. The false informational company against Ukraine is spent.

4) In December Russia is impudent has required of Ukraine offset of a mythical debt. Actually Russia has conducted forgery approving that the total of a down payment, arrangements ABT which one have been attained in the end of 2007, is equivalent to a debt of Ukraine to Russia. Though at a signing of a treaty ABT deliveries of gas and a down payment for it it has been stipulated, that the down payment will implement at discretion the Ukraine. In usual on that MOM of a political and financial and economic situation the down payment for gas was introduced not expedient.

5) In reply to failure to finance a policy of falsehood and deny ultimatums, since December, 20th, 2008 Russia reduces deliveries of transit gas through terrain of Ukraine. As a result Ukraine has been compelled to deliver to Europe gas from the storehouses.

6) Since January, 1st, 2009 Russia terminates gas deliveries to Ukraine and in bridge convicts Ukraine of larceny of transit gas.

7) Russia requires building of the commission of international spectators behind gas transit, through terrain of Ukraine, on same insists, strangely enough, and Ukraine. When the arrangement concerning building of the yielded commission is attained Russia on behalf of president D.Medvedev and and Minister for Foreign Affairs S. Lavrova convict Ukraine of fluctuation of arrangements. In particular D.Medvedev states: «the Protocol signed by Ukraine on transit of gas, insignificant.» - and further does following assertion - «Differently as mockery at common sense and violation before the attained arrangements I can not name such stipulations and the application to them. These operations, per se, are routed on failure of present agreements under the supervisory control of gas transit, they have obviously expressed provocative and destructive nature»

The causes of untying of the alternate conflicting between Ukraine and Russia lie on a surface:

1) At first it not the desire of Ukraine becomes dependent on Russia. Directly it sounds as failure «to kiss divine back of Russia». It is Enough to look at the president of Belarus A.Lukashenko, what will perceive that W those who tries to become the faithful ally of Russia, Lukashenko is necessary to Russia, not especially to Europe.

2) the Second MOM is strategic relevance of coast of Black sea 4 Russia, and W / O Crimea and and specially Sevastopol to keep the Black Sea fleet for Russia there is no sense.

3) Lack in Russia however significant opposition. In Russia there is a sound opposition putinsko-medvedevskomu to a tandem, but agency, owing to informational blockage it is not enough. From so-called official opposition, namely various \"patriots\", communists and karamurzist (S.Kara-Murzy\'s followers actually one of ideologists of Putin regulations), anybody from them is not capable to influence on the Russian authority, and their operations is are under control and possible also accountable to operating authority.

4) The most relevant misfortune 4 Ukraine it not desire of Europe to carry out in relation to Russia the rigider policy. At the moment Ukraine is in very difficult situation on the one hand this pressure on it Russia. OTOH this misunderstanding from European union of all threats 4 its health if Ukraine will be deleted. And it is is quite possible allowing for experience of Georgia.

5) Ukraine should insist on the prompt entrance into NATO and disposition on the terrain of NATO baselines. Thus it is necessary to achieve the entrance into NATO irrespective of the status of the Russian Black Sea fleet, otherwise there is a hazard to be occupied and dismembered from Russia.