An US military intervention in Syria or Iran would be likely to set off a geopolitical explosion in the whole region of the Middle East, the consequences of which will be felt by the whole world.
This opinion was expressed by the American political scientist and former US national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, whose article is published today by the Financial Times.
"The forceful export of democracy to both Syria or Iran - is dangerous daydreaming, said Brzezinski. - Most of the prevailing borders, which date back to the Anglo-French diktats following the First World War are shaky. Even the region's major states, notably Iran and Turkey, are vulnerable to internal ethnic and religious strains".
"In this flammable setting, an American intervention in the region would be likely to set off a region-wide explosion, a political analyst thinks. - The inevitable rise in the price of oil - prompted by increased insurance costs even were the Strait of Hormuz forcefully kept open by the US navy - would wreak havoc on Europe's financial recovery. Differences among European states would intensify".
According to Brzezinski, thus Russia can strengthen its influence in Ukraine and Georgia, since the energy dependence of the EU on Russian "black gold" will increase.
In this case, the geostrategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing will be strengthened to counter the promotion of the interests of Washington.
The result of such developments, according to Brzezinski, will be "the emergence of chaos in international relations".
The author offers the next US president to be elected in early November a series of measures to stabilize the geopolitical situation.
"First, on Syria, to engage Russia and China in support of an internationally mandated and monitored ceasefire, as a cooling-off phase before internationally supervised elections", the political scientist emphasized.
"Second, in the absence of agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue, to continue tightening sanctions and pledge publicly that the US will retaliate against any threat by Tehran to any Middle Eastern state".
"Third, to provide strong and explicit support for a more politically united Europe through an updated joint Atlantic Charter".
"Fourth, to undertake a high-level strategic dialogue with the new Chinese leadership to codify the fundamental interest of both countries in avoiding a replay of Europe's tragic wars of the 20th century", concluded Brzezinski.
Department of Monitoring