An influential international journal Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published an article entitled "Target Sochi: The threat from the Caucasus Emirate".
The article tells about "nuclear capabilities" (!?) of Caucasus Emirate's Mujahideen, describes in detail the history of Russian-Caucasian wars, explains why the CE has a legitimate right to attack Sochi, After that, the bulletin speculates that it is not necessarily to attack Putin's games. It is sufficient to carry out sabotage operations in other places, such as Volgograd, to harm Putin and his olympics.
Reading the article, one cannot help thinking that nuclear scientists are inviting the Mujahideen to leave Sochi alone and bomb elsewhere, convincing them that the consequences for Putin and the Kremlin regime would be the same.
In addition, they "assume" that the Mujahideen may even not attack Sochi at all and use games to explore security systems of the games for later use in attacks during a football world championship in Russia.
The "nuclear capabilities" of Mujahideen of CE that should cause alarm and fear are obviously too far-fetched:
The Bulletin of Nuclear Scientists wrotes
"No other terrorist organization is known to have more experience with radiological or “dirty bomb” materials. The Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, the predecessor of the Caucasus Emirate, also explored chemical weapons and is widely believed to have reconnoitered Russian nuclear weapon storage facilities and transportation nodes, allegedly attempted to steal intact nuclear devices twice, and may have stolen “significant” amounts of plutonium.
The Caucasus Emirate inherited vast amounts of knowledge about generating high casualty counts, possesses innovative and highly complex operational capabilities, and has uncommon experience with unconventional weapons and their storage facilities.
This inheritance has been used to devastating effect. According to Hahn (a pro-Russian "expert" on Caucasian Jihad of Jewish origin in the US - KC), since the group's formation in October 2007 (i.e. after the proclamation of the Caucasus Emirate as an Islamic state in North Caucasus - KC), it has engaged in some 2,500 jihadi attacks and violent incidents, including 54 suicide bombings.
In 2009, the CE killed a variety of high-ranking military and government officials in the North Caucasus. It also was involved in the unconventional and complicated task of detonating bombs buried beneath the Moscow-St. Petersburg Nevsky Express train attacks in the 2007 and 2009. The former attack injured 30; the latter attack generated 136 casualties.
The frightening possibilities
With the opening of the Sochi Olympics just days away, the ways in which Caucasus Emirate-related terrorism might impinge upon them seem to cluster around three general possibilities.
The least likely would be a mass casualty attack in Sochi itself. Security is so high that an attack seems improbable. Still, it is a possibility. Insiders could have been planted in Sochi years ago.
Moreover, two recent martyrdom attacks by the CE were conducted by female ethnic Russians working with handlers, also ethnic Russians, who might have an easier time getting into Sochi than terrorists of North Caucasus descent.
Late in January of this year, Russian authorities were searching Sochi for a female revenge bomber, or "black widow."
But given the extraordinary security in Sochi, the most likely outcome would seem to be an attack elsewhere in Russia (in the Caucasus Emirate, not in Russia - KC). The recent bombings in Volgograd (Sari-Chin - KC)—a major transportation hub for those traveling to Sochi—could portend another attack there.
A successful attack anywhere in Russia would likely cast a pall over the games; the distance of an attack from Sochi and its perceived "success" in terms of casualties generated would seem to be the main factors that will determine how badly the games are damaged.
The CE could of course forego any attacks, using the Olympics as a way of gaining knowledge of Russian security practices ahead of other events that might be targeted, including the 2018 FIFA World Cup soccer tournament, to be held in 11 stadiums throughout Russia, including one in Sochi.
But a Caucasus Emirate waiting game seems less likely than the possibility that terror attacks have been planned, and that the plans are ambitious. As William Faulkner famously wrote in 1951, "The past is never dead. It's not even past".
The past that lives on in the minds of many in the Caucasus is a violent one, and for them, historic scores are just waiting to be settled".
Department of Monitoring