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Russians perish from vodka as from war

Sat, 27 Jun 2009 10:21:55 GMT

The Times published an article that tells about "the terrible cost of Russia's love affair with vodka". According to the study, results of which have been published in the medical journal of The Lancet, in Russia, three quarters of deaths among men and half of deaths among women aged 15-54 were attributable to alcohol abuse. "The mortality rate in Russia in this age group was five times higher for men and three times higher for women than in Western Europe", The Times writes. Professor David Zaridze, who led the international research team, calculated that alcohol had killed three million Russians since Mikhail Gorbachev tried and failed to restrict sales in 1987. He added: "This loss is similar to that of a war", the newspaper writes. The study analyzed the deaths of almost 49,000 people between 1990 and 2001 in Tomsk, Barnaul and Biysk, three industrial cities in Siberia with typical mortality rates. It concluded that alcohol was the cause of 52 per cent of mortalities; 13 times greater than the worldwide average, The Times concludes. The growth of heroin smuggling from Afghanistan is the main reason of the tense situation with drug addiction in Russia, officials from the so-called "Federal Drug Control Service (FDCS)" of Russian believe. "In Russia we have up to 2.5 million drug addicts, mainly aged between 18 and 39. The main reason for this situation, we believe, is incessant flow of heroin from Afghanistan", FDCS official said. "80 thousand new addicts are being registered every year. 82 people die of drugs every night. This is 30 thousand people in a year, 2 times more than during the war in Afghanistan", the chief of FDCS Viktor Ivanov said earlier. "Russia is not simply on the needle of Afghan opiates, but also a world leader of their use. Russia today is the main victim of the Afghani narcotraffic. "If the situation in Afghanistan will not be broken, changed, then in 5-10 years we would have a drug addict in every family. This is not a fantasy, but a real prognosis", said Ivanov said. Thus, Russia is losing every year up to 30 thousand young people of the most capable age. We would like to remind that earlier the western experts have indicated that the total human losses of Russia during the Putin's reign have increased to wartime level, when people are quickly decreased in number as a result of fierce and long-term war. Department of Monitoring, Kavkaz Center

World Bank warns: Russians to face poverty

Thu, 25 Jun 2009 10:18:46 GMT

The Russian economy will shrink by 7.9 percent in 2009 despite a recent rise in commodity prices, the World Bank said on Wednesday, a much sharper contraction than the 4.5 percent it forecast earlier. Russia's economy contracted by 10.2 percent in January-May 2009, according to Economy Ministry estimates, and First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov told Reuters on Tuesday the annual contraction may reach 9 percent. "Given a much larger gross domestic product contraction in the first quarter of 2009 than anticipated, Russia's economy is likely to contract by 7.9 percent in 2009, despite higher oil prices assumed in the current forecast," the World Bank said in its quarterly country report. Russia, the world's largest energy producer, has been hit hard by the plunge in global demand for commodities, while its banks and many businesses that had borrowed heavily abroad have been squeezed by the global credit crunch. The World Bank's lead economist for Russia Zeljko Bogetic told a news conference there was a "natural lag" before the recent upturn in commodity prices would have an impact on Russian growth, "provided that it holds, of course, which is not entirely clear." The World Bank forecast Russia's jobless rate to rise to 13 percent by the end of this year, from its 9.9 percent May level, and said single factory towns will be the hardest hit by rising unemployment and wage arrears. "Some stabilisation (in the jobless rate) is related to seasonal factors and job shedding is not over," Bogetic said. The World Bank projected Russia would return to moderate growth of 2.5 percent in 2010 and 3.5 percent in both 2011 and 2012 in a "gradual and prolonged" recovery. "The speed of the subsequent recovery in Russia will to a great extent depend on the revival of global demand and the global financial system," the report said, adding that Russia will reach pre-crisis growth rates only at the end of the third quarter of 2012. FISCAL DEFICIT High oil prices may keep Russia's fiscal deficit lower than initially forecast but the report noted spending risks linked to recapitalising the banking sector and extra social costs. The report saw the fiscal deficit at 7.2 percent this year, and at 6.0 percent in 2010. The World Bank based its forecasts on average Russian Urals crude prices URL-E URL-NWE-E of between $ 56 per barrel this year and $ 63 per barrel in 2010. Bogetic said Russia needed to reduce the amount of aid going to people who do not really need it, and boost the budget's revenue base through raising liquor and tobacco excise duties. The World Bank said a delay in Russia's accession to the World Trade Organisation caused by a decision to form a customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan could undermine benefits from a rules based trading regime. The report said lower inflation has created room for more official interest rate cuts, which should help investment in the second half of 2009. But it also warned that overvaluation of the rouble could hurt the recovery. It expects inflation to reach 11-13 percent this year. The nation's current account surplus is forecast at $ 32 billion in 2009 and $ 36 billion in 2010. The World Bank said capital outflows will total $ 60 billion this year and decline to $ 30 billion in 2010. Non-performing loans could reach 10 percent of the total in banks' portfolios, the report said, adding that consolidation in the sector should be accelerated. Source: Agencies Kavkaz Center

In an interview to Western media Kadyrov vowed to kill families of Mujahideen, including in Ingushetia

Wed, 24 Jun 2009 13:20:16 GMT

Moscow based correspondent of London newspaper "Daily Telegraph" Adrian Blomfield in his article entitled "Kremlin authorises Chechen president to torture Ingushetia rebels", quoted the words of Kadyrov, reproachfully told to the Ingush puppets of the Kremlin: "If they had used torture and detentions, there wouldn't be any Wahabbism or terrorism". Kadyrov said this to Moscow correspondent of Reuters in his interview with Conor Humphries on June 23. BBC from its side quotes the following words of Kadyrov, told to correspondent of Reuters: "Medvedev told me to intensify actions ... including in Ingushetia. I will personally control the operations ... and I am sure in the near future there will be good results." Reuters' Moscow based correspondent Conor Humphries, whom Kadyrov gave an interview, said that Kadyrov had promised to kill the Mujahideen families and quoted the following his words: "We are sick of protecting them ... They are accessories in Wahhabism, terrorism," Kadyrov said, tapping the table with his fist". Reuters continues: "Kadyrov accused Western rights groups of caring more about the fate of terrorists than the innocent people of Chechnya. When they kill me, when they kill my father..., rights groups stay quiet". Will Kadyrov now start killing the western human rights activists in the West, as he practices it on Chechen refugees, Kadyrov did not tell to Reuters. Kavkaz Center

Trepashkin: FSB murder unit still in work

Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:19:49 GMT

Mikhail Trepashkin, a Moscow-based journalist and former FSB colonel, tells in an interview in the Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat that the FSB unit specialized in assassinations is still working. Trepashkin's colleague Aleksandr Litvinenko, who was poisoned in London in 2006, has revealed that� he was employed by this special unit. "This unit still exists, and the same people are still working there", Trepashkin told the newspaper. In a book published together with Juri Felshtinsky, Litvinenko told that he had been a member of this secret assassination unit. The unit belonged to URPO, the Directorate of Analysis and Suppression of Criminal Organizations, which is a secret organization as well. The Directorate was said to be abolished after the revelations of Litvinenko and Trepashkin. Trepashkin was jailed 2003-2007 due to illegal possession of a handgun and later also for revelation of state secrecies. Many human rights organizations appealed at that time for Trepashkin. Allegedly, one reason for the detention of Trepashkin was his investigations in the Moscow Bombings in 1999, which seem to have been orchestrated by FSB itself in order to establish Casus Belli, a reason to start a war. Litvinenko was poisoned in London by radioactive polonium. In their investigations, Scotland Yard wanted to interview Trepashkin but the request was denied by Russian authorities. The main suspect of the murder, Andrey Lugovoy, also refused interrogations. Lugovoy is nowadays a member of the State Duma of Russia. The Duma has also another member with an internatonal warrant for murder, Adam Demilkhanov, who is suspect of the murder of Sulim Yamadaev in March 2009.. According to Trepashkin, the assassination unit existed already in 1996. Trepashkin also tells that the unit reports directly to the Chief of FSB. Vladimir Putin was Chief of FSB before Yeltsin appointed him his successor as President of the Russian Federation. According to a law enforced in 2006, Russia may commit "counter-terrorist actions" also abroad. Predominantly, this stands for a� licence to kill people in opposition to the present rulers of the Kremlin. "Members of this unit have been visiting Boston, in order to find out Felshtinsky's dwelling place and his movements", Trepashkin tells. About his own security he says that he "is as afraid as anybody else". Trepashkin took part in a seminar organized by Finrosforum, the Finnish-Russian Civic Forum. The annual seminar discussed this year political prisoners in Russia, the situation of ethnic and religious minorities and issues connected to the colonization of North Caucasus. Among the speakers were Fatima Tlisova, who gave a speech about the Circassian Genocide, and Islam Tumsoev who spoke about the North Caucasian struggle against the invaders during last centuries and still today. Mikael Storsjö Helsinki KC

Isa Yamadayev tells that he is next on Kadyrov's death list

Mon, 11 May 2009 19:01:20 GMT

We would like to remind that his brother, Sulim Yamadayev, was killed as a result of assassination attempt in Dubai in March 2009. Isa's other brother; the deputy of Russian State Duma Ruslan Yamadayev was shot dead in downtown Moscow in September 2008. "I am next on a death-list of enemies of my family", Isa Yamadayev told in his interview to British newspaper The Times. He expressed confidence that Ramzan Kadyrov is behind the murders of his brothers, Ruslan and Sulim, because "they refused to bow to his will". Until recently, Isa Yamadaev was saying that his brother Sulim did not die as a result of the assassination, but was injured, is he recovering now and would return to Russia. "Sulim was warned several times. He was told to leave Russia and he lay low for a while. We were told that Kadyrov's people had sent a death squad to take him out", Isa said in interview. After Ruslan Yamadayev was killed in Moscow, Sulim foretold his own murder by a hit squad. He was the sixth opponent of Kadyrov to die violently in quick succession, The Times notes. The journalist, who spoke with Isa Yamadayev, writes: "ever mindful of the danger, he remains largely indoors with the blinds down, a gun close by and several armed bodyguards next door. Calmly, he predicted his own death..., and also swore vengeance", continues the author who visited Isa in his apartment on the outskirts of Moscow. "Even if we're all killed, we are a big clan. The day will come when Kadyrov will face justice for what he has done. He'll end up in jail", Isa Yamadayev stated. "Through the rule of law, justice will be done", he considers. According to the British edition, the rivalry between Yamadayev and Kadyrov escalated a year ago when a convoy led by Badrudi, another of the Yamadayev brothers, collided with a 50-car motorcade accompanying Kadyrov. Kadyrov demanded arrest of Badrudi and Sulim Yamadayev. Tension between Kadyrovites and Yamadayevites grew as each clan was backed by "rival factions" in Moscow, The Times writes. The subordinates of Ramzan Kadyrov, as well as people of Yamadayev brothers, the British newspaper notes, accused of carrying out abductions, torture and executions. Kavkaz Center

Pipeline explosion in Moscow: Russian strategic facility attacked?

Sun, 10 May 2009 12:50:00 GMT

According to Russian mass-media, night explosion and the powerful fire which has followed it have caused a huge damage to Physicochemical Scientific Research Institute of Lev Yakovlevich Karpov. The explosion has destroyed laboratories, the expensive equipment of institute, exhaust ventilation system. Approximate extent of the damage would become known in the next two days, but experts assume that one year may take to rebuild the Research Institute even if the financial aid would be provided. According to maps showed by Russian media, the explosion occurred not in the street along the pipeline route as Russian mass-media wish to present to the readers, but inside the building of strategic facility. According to official data, "Karpov Physicochemical Scientific Research Institute of the Order of the Red Banner of Labor is: 1. A strategic factory, 2. An organisation, running especially radiationally dangerous and nuclearly dangerous production and facilities, and 3. A factory of defense-industrial complex. According to unofficial data, the Institute works in the field of secret production of the chemical weapons, and, probably, also the nuclear. We would like to remind that a secret underground chemical plant for the production of chemical weapons located on the outskirts of Nienschanz (AKA St. Petersburg) was destroyed by a similar explosion on gas pipeline on 26 July 2007. However, back then the Russian authorities did not recognize this fact, despite numerous attestations of eyewitnesses. Meanwhile it is necessary to notice that the "handwriting" of the operations against the Russian structures on manufacture of the chemical weapon in Moscow at 0.00 o'clock on May, 9th, 2009 and in St. Petersburg at 0.00 o'clock on July, 26th, 2007, is the same. Russian mass-media reported that the explosion in Moscow occurred at 00:20 pm or 00:30 pm on May 10, however a video footage with the explosion has already been published on Russian Video sharing website "Rutube" at 0:20 pm. Consequently, the explosion occurred earlier, sometime around midnight Responsibility for the destruction of the chemical factory in St. Petersburg claimed by by the Brigade of Martyrs from sabotage squad�of the�Mujahideen of "Riyad-us-Saliheen", a unit of Martyrs created in his time by Shamil Basayev. "Riyad-us-Saliheen" at that time has warned that the Mujahideen would continue to strike at key targets in any time and anywhere in the territory of Russia which has been declared a zone of military operations. Department Monitoring, Kavkaz Center

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs bans trips to Pakistan to �prevent people following the bad example�

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 20:11:21 GMT

After the successes of the Pakistani Taliban fighters in their struggle against the country's pro-democratic totalitarian puppet regime, the Russian ministry of foreign affairs has banned Russian citizens from travelling there. "Russian citizens should refrain from visiting Pakistan so that they won't pick up on the bad example set by that country", an official representative of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs gang by the name of Nesterenko was quoted as saying. Translated into plain language, this means that the criminal in effect said that the KGBers holding power in Russia are very much concerned about the increasing number of successful military operations carried out by Taleban fighters in Pakistan. In Pakistan the mujahedeen are acting openly and decisively, their popular support is increasing while the puppet regime of Mojaheda is being hated more and more. The mujahedeen are establishing Sharia law in the territories under their control. The concern of the Russian KGB junta is also caused by another bad example; the puppet regime in Pakistan has been forced to make concessions to and seek peace with the mujahedeen, thereby securing amnesty for some of its representatives, said Nesterenko. Let us remind you that in the same way the KGBers of the old USSR banned soviet citizens from travelling to the free-thinking democratic Czechoslovakia following the events of the spring of 1968 to prevent them from getting infected with the bad example of democracy and from being inspired to fight against the bloody communist dictatorship in the USSR. In the meantime it's been reported that the puppet prime minister of Sindkh province in the south of Pakistan (of which Karachi is the capital) Sied Kaim Ali Shakh stated on April 16 that "his provincial administration has received several reports confirming Taliban presence in the region" Earlier Pakistani Taleban's Press Secretary for Military Affairs Musim Khan pointed out in an interview that the mujahedeen were going to spread their fight against the puppet regime from the Svat valley in the north west of the Country (the North-Western Border Province with the capital in Peshavar) across the whole of Pakistan. Muslim Khan also said that Pakistani Taleban fighters were prepared to go to the war against the US in Afghanistan, should the Afghani Taleban fighters request their help. Once we've achieved our objective (the establishment of Sharia law, Kavkaz Center) in one place, there will still be other places where we'll have to fight to achieve the same objective" noted the representative of Pakistani Taleban. KC

Chechen shot in Dubai probably Sulim Yamadayev

Sun, 29 Mar 2009 12:11:51 GMT

Dubai. So far there is no exact information on personality of a resident of Chechnya shot in Dubai. Local Chechens say that the killed is Sulim Yamadayev. According to other, Sulim Yamadayev was seriously wounded but survived and now he is in the hospital under local police protection. Information has been spread among the Chechen Diaspora in Dubai saying that the ringleader of "Vostok" gang Sulim Yamadayev was killed here on Saturday noon. Any official denial of this information has not been reported so far.�The authorities do not make comments on these rumors. According to other data, Sulim Yamadayev survived an assassination attempt and now is in the hospital. We would like to remind that the local media referring to the Dubai police reported on Saturday about the murder in one of the richest and most prestigious districts the Dubai Marina. The victim was identified as Sulaiman Madov, a Chechen born in 1973. Dubai Police believes that it was an assassination attempt. There are witnesses of an attack who saw, how killer shots at a victim. Dubai Police Chief Lt. Gen. Dahi Khalfan Tamim, who immediately arrived at the scene said that the Madov was under close observation prior to his assassination. The authorities do say anything on the reasons for this observation. Let's specify also that the given incident has caused the big agiotage of local authorities. Together with the head of the police to an event place there has arrived also the director of public service of safety of Hamis Mattar al-Mazinah. We would like also to indicate that the incident generated public excitement of local authorities. The Dubai Police Chief was accompanied by Major General Khamis Mattar Al Mazienah, Deputy Chief of Dubai Police, and Director of the Security State Department. Kavkaz Center

'Tense meeting' took place between Putin, Kadyrov

Tue, 24 Mar 2009 12:25:22 GMT

Putin held a "tense" meeting with Kadyrov on Friday, trading thinly veiled barbs about whose responsibility it is for the impoverished Chechnya, The Moscow Times writes. While the government of Putin aims to cut the budget for regional subsidies this year, Kadyrov has been pressing for more federal support. Medvedev said in February that regional leaders who were not meeting expectations on handling the crisis would be "called to Moscow for meetings". According to the newspaper, which refers to the Russian sources, Putin opened the meeting by asking whether Kadyrov's "discussion with the Finance Ministry was finished," without elaborating. "Everything is great with the Finance Ministry now," Kadyrov replied. "Friends?" Putin asked. "Friends, thanks to you, Vladimir Vladimirovich!" Kadyrov replied, according to a transcript of the meeting on the Russian government's web site. In the choppy exchange, which stood out from the usually fawning gubernatorial reports, Putin asked Kadyrov about problems in his region, including wage arrears and unemployment. Answering a query about aid to Chechens who suffered in an earthquake last year, Kadyrov said his "government" had given families construction materials and used the "national way -- when people help one another." "But it's important to give state help, as well," Putin said in reply. "What about the hospital that was destroyed?" "We did everything that was in our power," Kadyrov reported, adding that a new hospital project was being reviewed at the "federal level" in Moscow -- in the Health and Social Development Ministry. Putin responded that it needed to be a modern hospital, to which Kadyrov replied: "Of course. Euro-standard." "The main thing for us is your word that you settle this issue," Kadyrov said, responding to another jab from Putin about the quality of the facility. Putin then abruptly turned his attention to a giant mosque finished in Grozny (Jokhar - KC) in October last year. The mosque can hold 10,000 people and is finished with rare marble and 36 Swarovski crystal chandeliers. Interestingly, the mosque is located on "Vladimir Putin's Avenue" (who killed 250 thousand Muslims of Chechnya - KC). "And how is your mosque functioning? I saw that you've held some big events," Putin asked, referring to the festivities on the prophet Mohammed's (pbuh) birthday earlier this month. The newspaper writes that while the sparring suggested a worsening of mutual frustration over who dictates Chechnya's spending priorities, Kadyrov, hastened to declare he was satisfied with the results of the meeting. A statement on the "Chechen government's" web site said Putin gave "special attention" to the mosque and was "impressed" by the scope of the celebrations, The Moscow Times newspaper writes. Department of Monitoring, Kavkaz Center

The French Intelligence Service follows the Russian assassins' footsteps

Mon, 23 Mar 2009 09:27:10 GMT

On photo: delegation of the French secret service in Turkey The Turkish newspaper "Sabah" reports about the secret meeting of the special services of Turkey and France, which took place in Istanbul and which primary focus has been on the joint efforts to counteract operation of the assassin's squads of Putin and Kadyrov terrorizing the Chechen refugees in Europe. The newspaper writes: "French officials, desiring to protect the Chechens residing in their country, are secretly visiting Turkey in order to investigate three cases of murders of the Chechens. Currently information is being exchanged between the Turkish and the French officials. Mysterious murders of the Chechens in Istanbul alarmed not only the Turkish Secret Services but also the French ones. A few days ago, a French delegation has secretly come to Turkey to obtain information about the murder cases of the Chechens. The delegation met with the prosecutors and the intelligence service. According to some sources, earlier the French intelligence units received information about the assassination plans, which included using small arms and explosives, of the Chechen leaders in France. The French intelligence services believe that assassinations are planned by the Russian Secret Service (FSB). The French Secret Service has already moved some of the Chechen leaders living in France to other locations and changed their IDs . The French anti-terror police is monitoring closely and is giving protection to the Chechen leaders as well as to their families living in the country. Having managed their affairs with the Chechens at home the Frenchmen then arrived in Ankara and in Istanbul. They secretly entered and exited from the local airport and met with the representatives of the Turkish Ministry of Justice and the National Intelligence Organization (MIT). The Liaison Judge Philippe Dorcet from the French delegation, told "Sabah" newspaper the following: "We have got information from our secret police DGSE that assassinations of the Chechens would be carried out in France. We are doing a very secret investigation in this direction. We have some of the Chechen leaders in our country. Murders of the Chechen which occurred one after the other in Turkey have attracted our attention. We think that murders in Turkey are connected. We have established a special intelligence team for the Chechens living in France. We are currently thoroughly exploring the possibilities of the Russian trace on the basis of the intelligence that we have. France is a big country. We do not want political murders in our country with the traces of foreign secret services. The Chechens murdered in Turkey and the ones currently residing in France have one thing in common - during one period of time they were all opposing Russia. Istanbul Deputy Chief Prosecutor Turan Cholakkadi, also present at the meeting with the French delegation, said that murders of the Chechens are not related to the organized crime. In the meantime it is being reported that the MIT has already prepared a report on the three Chechen murder cases. In this report it is stated that Ghazi Edilsultanov, Islam Janibekov and Ali Osayev (all assassinated in Turkey) participated in the resistance against Russian aggression in Chechnya. The report also indicates that most of the Chechen groups have entered Turkey illegally, but that they are not perpetrating any crimes. Connection of the Russian Secret Service has been already established to several assassinations commited abroad. The poisoning of Aleksandr Litvinenko, the former KGB agent and Putin's critic, in London in 2006 and the killing of Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, the former president of Chechnya in Qatar in 2004. Russian agents also tried organizing assassination of the businessman Boris Berezovsky currently residing in England as a refugee", writes the Turkish newspaper "Sabah". Kavkaz Center

Disintegration predicted for Russia because of demographic decline

Tue, 17 Mar 2009 21:27:24 GMT

The Russian Federation is likely to break apart into as many as 30 pieces by the middle of this century as that country's accelerating demographic decline leads some of its smaller nationalities to take steps to try to ensure their own survival, according to a leading Moscow scholar. In an interview posted online, Anatoly Antonov, a professor of sociology, the family and demography at Moscow State University, says that widely believed assertions by government officials that Russia has been able to increase the birthrate "do not correspond to reality". On the one hand, he continues, these assertions reflect the fundamental ignorance of many in government and out of the nature of demographic trends in Russia. And on the other, they serve as a self-serving justification for not doing what the country must do if it is to avoid disaster in the relatively near future. Antonov says that the recent uptick in births reflects the echo of the baby boom of the late 1980s but that beginning in 2010, the number of women entering the prime child-bearing age cohort will decline significantly because far fewer were born in the 1990s. And as a result, the decline in the country's population will begin to accelerate. He argues that if nothing is done - and because the Russian government has no one in it who understands the need for action now, including the compelling need to make housing more available to young married couples, that possibility strikes him as unlikely - the population of the Russian Federation in its current borders will fall to 38 million by 2080. Instead, what is likely to happen, the Moscow demographer continues, is that in 2015, five years after the collapse in the number of births begins, "bureaucrats will recognize the extent of the catastrophe and begin to shout that this financial crisis undermined the realization of all their plans." But by then, he suggests, it may be too late: "From 2010 to 2025, every succeeding generation of people entering marriage age will be ever smaller in comparison with the preceding one," and "all this will produce an unbelievable contraction in the present coefficient of births" so that by 2025, half the population will not want children, and only 15 percent more than one. Such declines will lead to the depopulation of the country, and "when depopulation begins, a desire will arise among smaller peoples to separate themselves from larger ones" in order to survive. "The Udmurts, the Komi, the Chuvash and many other small peoples do not want to disappear from the face of the earth," Antonov says. And consequently, these peoples will see as "their man task" separation from Russia and thus the prosecution of their "own struggle for survival and for their own national uniqueness." At least some of these peoples - and there are 190 nationalities in the Russian Federation - may even begin thinking in this way very soon. At the present time, Antonov says, he and his colleagues are "attempting to calculate" at what point in Russia's demographic decline will some of these nations be likely to begin to seek broader autonomy or even independence. "And we think," he says, "that this will take place [when the country's population falls to] between 75 and 65 million." Antonov argues that everyone should "now try to imagine what would be the situation if Russia were to divide for example into 30 parts. And this is not a myth. The cause of such a possible disintegration is that under conditions of depopulation, every people will strive to preserve itself from others." And to that end, many of these nations will be hostile to Russia, in much the same way Antonov suggests as the residents of the Baltic countries already are, united "on the basis of hostility to Russians." Such a prospect ought to lead Russians and their leaders to recognize the importance of demographic trends and the need to do something about them now. Department of Monitoring, Kavkaz Center

The Guardian: Failure awaits Putin's regime

Mon, 23 Feb 2009 15:51:27 GMT

The current global economic crisis brings the greatest threat for the authoritarian regimes of Russia and China, convinced the British newspaper "The Guardian". According to columnist Robert Skidelsky, the stability of political systems in Western democracies is provided due to the fact that in case of apparent failures of the ruling party and the emergence of social unrest, the system offers the switch of power to the opposition, without dismantling of the basic principles which hold together the system itself. However in the countries where the regime is authoritarian in nature (and author included Russia and China into the list of such countries) such possibilities are basically not available. Robert Skidelsky notes that in the event of serious economic problems the ruling elites in authoritarian countries will have to face the power of the people's dissatisfaction all by themselves. Author draws comparison between the current situation in Russia and the period of the dictatorship of Suharto in Indonesia and the rule of the Shah in Iran. He draws attention to the fact that those regimes have also been seemingly unshakeable at the time when domestic economic growth has been provided, but were wiped out by the people after their economies started to fail. Similar events, according to author's opinion, are to be expected for Beijing and Moscow. Here is what Robert Skidelsky wrote in his article published in The Guardian: "If a social contract depends on rapid economic growth, what happens when that fails? Russia and China are about to find out", Robert Skidelsky writes in the article. "They'll know whom to blame". "Enrich yourselves," China's Deng Xiaoping told his fellow countrymen when he started dismantling Mao Zedong's failed socialist model. In fact, elites everywhere have always lived by this injunction, and ordinary people have not minded very much, provided that the elites fulfill their part of the bargain: protect the country against its enemies and improve living conditions. It is this implied social contract that is now endangered by economic collapse. Of course, compliance with the terms of the contract depends on the time and place.� In Europe, the XIX century of the rich was required to demonstrate modesty and moderation: It was not to show excessive luxury.� Wealthy people kept most of their income, because the savings is both a foundation for their own investments, and demonstrating compliance with the standards of public morality.� And when it comes to the creation of the welfare state, it was assumed that the rich will play the role of philanthropy. Of course, the terms of the contract vary with place and time. In nineteenth-century Europe, the rich were expected to be frugal. Conspicuous consumption was eschewed. The wealthy were supposed to save much of their income, as saving was both a fund for investment and a moral virtue. And, in the days before the welfare state, the rich were also expected to be philanthropists. In the opportunity culture of the United States, by contrast, conspicuous consumption was more tolerated. High spending was a mark of success: what Americans demanded of their rich was conspicuous enterprise. Societies have also differed in how wealthy they allow their elites to become, and in their tolerance of the means by which wealth is acquired and used. One dividing line is between societies that tolerate self-enrichment through politics, and those that demand that the two spheres be kept separate. In western countries, politicians and civil servants are expected to be relatively poor. In most of the rest of the world, a political career is regarded as a quasi-legitimate road to wealth. But the broad conclusion remains: wealth is conditional on services. When the services fail, the position of the wealthy is threatened. The global economy's downturn increases countries' political risk to varying degrees, depending on the severity of the shock and the nature of the implied social contract. Political systems in which power is least controlled, and the abuse of wealth greatest, are most at risk. The more corrupt the system of capitalism, the more vulnerable it is to attack. The general problem is that all of today's versions of capitalism are more or less corrupt. "Enrich yourselves" is the clarion call of our era; and in that moral blind spot lies a great danger. Despite efforts to give it precision, estimating political risk is not an exact science. It requires political theory, not econometrics. Forecasting models, based on "normal distributions" of risk over short slices of recent time, are notoriously incapable of capturing the real amount of risk in a political system. One of the "safest" political systems of recent times was President Suharto's regime in Indonesia. Suharto came to power in 1966, establishing a quasi-military dictatorship and encouraging Indonesians to "enrich themselves". Despite the depredations of his family, enough Indonesians did so over the next 30 years to make his rule seem exceptionally stable - until the east Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998 sent the Indonesian economy into a tailspin, triggering violent riots that forced Suharto out. Similarly, few regimes seemed more stable than that of the shah of Iran, another long-term ruler, who, having bankrupted his country, was forced to flee the fury of a mob in 1979. The lesson is clear. Autocracies, which are much praised for their decisiveness, and for guaranteeing "law and order", are paper tigers. They appear immovable until the moment they are evicted by popular anger. In face of economic failure or military defeat, their emperors turn out to be naked. In such situations, the great advantage of democracies is that they allow a change of rulers without a change of regime. Failure discredits only the party or coalition in power, not the entire political system. Popular anger is channeled to the ballot box. In such countries, there may be "New Deals", but no revolutions. In estimating political risk today, analysts must pay particular attention to the character of the political system. Does it allow for an orderly transition? Is it competitive enough to prevent discredited leaders from clinging to power? Analysts must also pay attention to the nature of the implied social contract. Broadly speaking, the weakest contracts are those that allow wealth and power to be concentrated in the same few hands, while the strongest are built on significant dispersal of both. Deepening economic recession is bound to catalyse political change. The western democracies will survive with only modest changes. But strongmen who rely on the secret police and a controlled media to maintain their rule will be quaking in their shoes. Even Venezuela's Hugo Chávez, who built his power on populist anti-Americanism, must be praying for the success of Barack Obama's stimulus package to lift his falling oil revenues. The big countries with the highest political risk are Russia and China. The legitimacy of their autocratic systems is almost entirely dependent on their success in delivering rapid economic growth. When growth falters, or goes into reverse, there is no one to blame but "the system". Igor Yurgens, one of Russia's most creative political analysts, has been quick to draw the moral: "The social contract consisted of limiting civil rights in exchange for economic well-being. At the current moment, economic well-being is shrinking. Correspondingly, civil rights should expand. It's just simple logic." The rulers in Moscow and Beijing would do well to heed this warning", the Guardian columnist Robert Skidelsky concludes. Department of Monitoring, Kavkaz Center

According to Zakayev, Kadyrov can ''unite the Chechen society''

Tue, 17 Feb 2009 17:01:20 GMT

Zakayev might be granted amnesty. He responded with intention to return to Chechnya. In his interview to "Echo of Moscow" radio Akhmed Zakayev said that he intends to return to Chechnya, and "to contribute to a long-term peace in the region". The ringleader of Chechen apostates Kadyrov welcomed the decision. *** The former minister of Foreign Affairs of the CRI, Akhmed Zakayev (who has declared himself a "Premier of Euro-Ichkeria") may be granted amnesty. Russian presidential envoy for "international cooperation in combating terrorism and transnational crime", Anatoli Safanov said at a press conference. "The path to amnesty is not closed to Zakayev," Safonov said. "If he goes to Russia and proves his innocence in court, he can use the possibility given to him by President Kadyrov". According to him, Zakayev stated earlier that he dissociates himself from terrorists. "Decision on Zakayev's amnesty is in the juristical field", Medvedev's envoy noted. A few hours after this message, in his interview to "Echo of Moscow" radio Akhmed Zakayev said that he intends to return to Chechnya, and "to contribute to a long-term peace in the region". According to Zakayev, ringleader of the Chechen apostates Kadyrov can "unite the Chechen society". "Considering today's realities Ramzan Kadyrov has all the chances to initiate a political process to consolidate the Chechen society, to help in creating a single, reasonable political platform which will define relationship with Russia", Zakayev said in his interview to his own Internet website. Puppet ringleader of the Chechen apostates Kadyrov has already welcomed Zakayev's intention to return home. "I welcome Zakayev's intention to return to Chechnya. I am sure that he took the right decision and he will find his place in the Chechen society", Kadyrov said, commenting on the statement of Zakayev. "We have previously offered Zakayev to return home. We wish to let every resident of the republic forced to live abroad to know that Chechnya is their homeland and it is open to everyone who has no connection to serious crimes", pro-Moscow puppet ringleader stated in the interview to RIA News. He expressed confidence that the "changes taking place in the Chechen republic encourage those who lived abroad for a long period of time, calling themselves leaders of Ichkeria, to return back to the homeland". "The intention of Zakayev to return home is a sign that he firmly believed in the irreversible changes in the country, saw that people are building their future, and that no one can interfere, or impose new tragedy", expressed his views on the statement of Zakayev the ringleader of apostates . It should be mentioned that earlier, after official invitation by the ringleader of the Chechen apostates Kadyrov to return home, Akhmed Zakayev expressed fears about his own safety. Zakayev considered Kadyrov's guarantees insufficient and hinted that such guarantees can be given only by Moscow. Zakayev also admitted that he has been conducting intensive negotiations with Kadyrov on mutual cooperation and his return home for about 8 months already.� Kavkaz Center

Stratfor: Russian secret services may have killed the Azerbaijani general

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 10:57:31 GMT

According to the American Center for Strategic Forecasting, "Stratfor", Azerbaijan's air force commander, Lt. Gen. Rail Rzayev may have been killed by Russian Secret Services. According to the center, the murder was committed for political motives. It is indicated that the general was an active supporter of accommodation of the US Air Force units in Azerbaijan and the procurement of western combat aircraft for the Azerbaijani army. "Stratfor" believes that this killing could be considered as warning of Russia. The Baku's disregard on a number of issues could have pushed Russian to this step. Experts believe that the assassination of General Rzayev was committed by professionals, since the place where the incident occurred, is well-protected. According to preliminary data, the commander of Air Forces of Azerbaijan was killed by one shot from a weapon of unknown brand. Some experts believe that the general was killed by a sniper. Department of Monitoring, Kavkaz Center

Human rights activists speak about torturing Chechens in Russian prisons

Thu, 12 Feb 2009 12:21:57 GMT

At a press conference in Moscow on February 10, human rights activists reported that natives from Chechnya, who had been tortured with the aim to knock out evidences and then sentenced to long imprisonment terms, are still tortured in prisons out of hatred. Lev Ponomaryov, head of the Movement "For Human Rights", has stated that every year the Fund in Defence of Prisoners' Rights of prisoners receives several thousands complaints from inmates against mockeries and torture. Many of them are from natives from the Caucasus. Some of the top managers in the colonies are former militaries who had fought or served in Chechnya. They start taking vengeance on Chechens at once and with no rational aim, as Svetlana Gannushkina, chair of the Committee "Civil Assistance", asserts. Currently, in the colony located in the Volgograd Region a Chechen inmate Zubair Zubairaev is tortured. This was reported to the press conference by his sister Malika and Imran Ezhiev, who managed to meet the prisoner. Mr Ezhiev demonstrated Zubairaev's photos to journalists showing traces of nails with which his feet were hammered to the floor and of other torture. The photos show that Zubairaev's dressings covering his wounds are bleeding with purulence. At his meeting with the human rights defender, Zubairaev explained that his dressings were not changed for a month, and it was additional punishment. As a result of beatings with truncheons, Zubairaev's head has increased in size, and his dressings had an intolerable purulent smell. The human rights activist said that the colony administration had allowed him to make photos, having stated that the prisoner was himself disturbing his wounds, aiming to draw attention. Meanwhile, according to Malika, Zubair's sister, the colony managers threatened "to finish him" if Zubairaev did not stop complaining to human rights activists. Source: Caucasus Knot Kavkaz Center